The “Great Moderation” in the United Kingdom
用贝叶斯时变参数结构向量自回归模型分析英国大稳健的成因，发现运气主导了最近二十年的稳定，反事实模拟显示货币政策委员会对高通胀影响有限，大通胀主要由需求冲击导致。
We use a Bayesian time‐varying parameters structural VAR with stochastic volatility for GDP deflator inflation, real GDP growth, a 3‐month nominal rate, and the rate of growth of M4 to investigate the underlying causes of the Great Moderation in the United Kingdom. Our evidence points toward a dominant role played by good luck in fostering the more stable macroeconomic environment of the last two decades. Results from counterfactual simulations, in particular, show that (i) “bringing the Monetary Policy Committee back in time” would only have had a limited impact on the Great Inflation episode, at the cost of lower output growth; (ii) imposing the 1970s monetary rule over the entire sample period would have made almost no difference in terms of inflation and output growth outcomes; and (iii) the Great Inflation was due, to a dominant extent, to large demand non‐policy shocks, and to a lesser extent—especially in 1973 and 1979—to supply shocks.