Equity Prices, Productivity Growth and ‘The New Economy’
建立模型并利用11个OECD国家的历史数据，证明技术进步对股票收益只有暂时影响，挑战了1990年代股价上涨源于新经济带来永久性生产率增长的观点。
The sharp increase in equity prices over the 1990s was widely attributed to permanently higher productivity growth derived from the New Economy. This article establishes a rational expectations model of technology innovations and equity prices, which shows that under plausible assumptions, productivity advances can only have temporary effects on the fundamentals of equity prices. Using historical data on productivity of R&D capital, patent capital and fixed capital for 11 OECD countries, empirical evidence gives strong support for the model by suggesting that technological innovations indeed have only temporary effects on equity returns. Copyright 2006 The Authors. Journal compilation Royal Economic Society 2006.