Policy Analysis with Incredible Certitude
指出政策分析中常见的虚假确定性，如常规确定性、对抗确定性、混淆科学与倡导等，并用案例说明这些做法如何导致预测不可信。
Analyses of public policy regularly express certitude about the consequences of alternative policy choices. Yet policy predictions often are fragile, with conclusions resting on critical unsupported assumptions or leaps of logic. Then the certitude of policy analysis is not credible. I develop a typology of incredible analytical practices and give illustrative cases. I call these practices conventional certitude, duelling certitudes, conflating science and advocacy, wishful extrapolation, illogical certitude and media overreach.