Merger Cycles: A Frequency Domain Approach*
使用频域技术，发现1969至2005年间英国并购活动存在6年的总体周期和平均5年的行业周期，商业与资本市场周期共同导致并购周期，但资本市场周期单独不成立，暗示并购周期可能反映市场失衡或错误估值。
Abstract Using frequency domain techniques, a cycle of 6‐year duration at the aggregate level and coherent sectoral cycles of average 5‐year duration are found in UK merger activity between 1969 and 2005. It is shown that business and capital market cycles jointly are causal for the merger cycle but the capital market cycle alone is not, suggesting that merger cycles may reflect disequilibria and/or market mis‐valuation. Although the possibility of disequilibrium or strong behavioural influences will complicate social evaluation, no reason is found to advise against the current UK policy stance upon mergers.