Alternative Estimates of Fed Beef Supply Response to Risk
构建并比较了六种包含价格均值和方差的饲育牛肉供给反应模型，发现预期模型的选择显著影响供给弹性估计，且预期是异质的。
Abstract Supply response models for fed beef incorporating risk by including both the mean and variance of output price are developed, estimated, and compared. Six different estimates of the mean and variance are obtained from futures prices; ARIMA processes; and naive, adaptive, and rational expectations models. Empirical estimates are compared using nonnested testing procedures and indicate that the choice of the expectations model significantly influences elasticity estimates and whether supply response is positive or negative. Empirical evidence does not support any one model in particular, suggesting that expectations are heterogenous rather than homogenous.