Modeling Inflation in Australia
构建了一个经验上恒定、数据一致的澳大利亚通胀误差修正模型，将消费者价格水平视为国内和进口成本的加成，并考虑了动态和相对总需求的调整。该模型优于现有模型。
Abstract This article develops an empirically constant, data-coherent, error-correction model for inflation in Australia. The level of consumer prices is a markup over domestic and import costs, with adjustments for dynamics and relative aggregate demand. We address issues of cointegration, general to specific modeling, dynamic specification, model evaluation and testing, parameter constancy, forecasting, and exogeneity. We also test this model against existing models of Australian prices: This model encompasses (but is not encompassed by) the existing models. KEY WORDS: CointegrationCPIError correctionGeneral to specific modelingMarkup modelPrices