Overconfidence and Diversification
实验证据表明人们常高估自身信息的准确性。本文证明风险厌恶的委托人可能偏好过度自信的代理人，因为后者有助于分散总体风险，这解释了为何成功的分析师和企业家往往过度自信。
Experimental evidence suggests that people tend to be overconfident in the sense that they overestimate the accuracy of their private information. In this paper, we show that risk-averse principals might prefer overconfident agents in various strategic interactions because these agents help diversify the aggregate risk. This may help understanding why successful analysts and entrepreneurs tend to be overconfident. In addition, a different interpretation of the model presents a novel evolutionary foundation for overconfidence, and explains various stylized facts about this bias.