过去的不确定性经历影响风险厌恶

Past experience of uncertainty affects risk aversion

Experimental Economics · 2015
被引 37
人大 A-ABS 3

中文导读

通过500多人参与的实验,研究过去经历的不同不确定性环境(完美信息、模糊、未知)如何影响后续风险选择,发现暴露于高度不确定环境会改变人们对高/低方差彩票的偏好。

Abstract

Abstract In an experiment with more than 500 participants we study how past experience of uncertainty (imperfect knowledge of the state space) affects risk preferences. Participants in our experiment choose between a sure outcome and a lottery in 32 periods. All treatments are exactly identical in periods 17–32 but differ in periods 1–16. In the early periods of the risk treatment there is perfect information about the lottery; in the ambiguity Treatment participants perfectly know the outcome space but not the associated probabilities; in the unawareness treatment participants have imperfect knowledge about both outcomes and probabilities. We observe strong treatment effects on behavior in periods 17–32. In particular, participants who have been exposed to an environment with very imperfect knowledge of the state space subsequently choose lotteries with high (low) variance less (more) often compared to other participants. Estimating individual risk attitudes from choices in periods 17–32 we find that the distribution of risk attitude parameters across our treatments can be ranked in terms of first order stochastic dominance. Our results show how exposure to environments with different degrees of uncertainty can affect individuals’ subsequent risk-taking behavior.

过去不确定性经历风险厌恶风险偏好实验经济学