The Effect of Confidence on Income Velocity in a Politically Unstable Environment: Wartime South Vietnam
利用越南战争期间的数据，验证了米切尔关于信心影响货币流通速度的假说，发现美军存在通过提振信心稳定了南越的货币需求与收入流通速度。
SUMMARY At the turn of this century WESLEY C. MITCHELL argued that the velocity of money could be influenced by a noneconomic variable that he called ‘confidence’; but the idea has received little attention since then. This study uses events in the long Vietnam war for statistically demonstrating the MITCHELL hypothesis. U. S. troop presence in South Vietnam boosted the peoples' confidence in their country's future thereby stabilizing the demand for fiat money and income velocity. Only two variables ‐ the previous year's rate of inflation and U. S. troop strength, which serves as a proxy for battlefield victories ‐ are needed to explain movements in velocity.