Effects of Forward Sales on Spot Markets: Pre‐commitment Sales and Prices for Fresh Strawberries
利用公开数据，通过GARCH-M模型分析新鲜草莓市场中非正式合同对现货价格和波动性的影响，发现合同提高了现货价格，但对波动性的影响因产区而异。
Abstract Increasingly, agricultural markets are vertically coordinated. Often a thinning spot market coexists with coordinated transactions, raising the question of how private coordination affects the market as a whole. One of the greatest challenges when analyzing such market‐level effects is obtaining information on private transactions. We utilize publicly available data to evaluate how informal contracts in the fresh strawberry market affect spot market prices using a generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic in mean (GARCH‐M) model. We find that these informal contracts increased spot prices, as argued by some industry members, while the effect on spot price volatility varied by production region.