Rainfall Forecasts, Weather, and Wages over the Agricultural Production Cycle
研究了降雨预报和实际降雨如何影响农业生产周期中的均衡工资，发现预报通过影响早期迁移，在播种期压低工资，并加剧不利天气对收获期工资的负面影响。
We look at the effects of rainfall forecasts and realized rainfall on equilibrium agricultural wages over the course of the agricultural production cycle. We show theoretically that a forecast of good weather can lower wages in the planting stage, by lowering ex ante out-migration, and can exacerbate the negative impact of adverse weather on harvest-stage wages. Using Indian household panel data describing early-season migration and district-level planting- and harvest-stage wages over the period 2005-2010, we find results consistent with the model, indicating that rainfall forecasts improve labor allocations on average but exacerbate wage volatility because they are imperfect.