Predicting the Location of Deforestation: The Role of Roads and Protected Areas in North Thailand
利用泰国北部地块数据，估计双变量probit模型分析土地清理与保护区选址，发现保护区未减少砍伐概率，但野生动物保护区可能有效，而道路建设促进了砍伐。
<i>Using plot level data, we estimate a bivariate probit model to explain land clearing and the siting of protected areas in North Thailand in 1986. The model suggests that protected areas (national parks and wildlife sanctuaries together) did not reduce the likelihood of forest clearing; however, wildlife sanctuaries may have reduced the probability of deforestation. Road building, by reducing impedance-weighted distance to market, has promoted clearing, especially near the forest fringe. We simulate the impact of further road building to show where road building is likely to have greatest impact and where it is likely to threaten protected areas.</i>