Trade spill-overs of fiscal policy in the European Union: a panel analysis
通过动态模型估计政府支出、净税收和产出，并结合贸易联系面板模型，量化欧盟内财政扩张通过贸易渠道对国内活动、外国出口和产出的溢出效应。
Spill-overs in the EU We explore international spill-overs from fiscal policy shocks via trade in Europe. To assess and quantify the channels through which a fiscal expansion stimulates domestic activity, foreign exports, and foreign output, we estimate a dynamic empirical model of government spending, net taxes, and output, and combine its estimates with a panel model of trade linkages across European countries. The baseline estimates of both models are quite robust and statistically significant. Our results indicate that trade spill-overs of fiscal shocks should be taken into account when assessing the character and intensity of economic integration in the European Union.