The Ins and Outs of Forecasting Unemployment: Using Labor Force Flows to Forecast the Labor Market
基于劳动力流动数据构建的预测模型，在实时预测失业率上大幅优于专业预测者调查和美联储绿皮书，均方根误差降低约30%，尤其在经济衰退和周期转折点表现突出。
This paper presents a forecasting model of unemployment based on labor force flows data that, in real time, dramatically outperforms the Survey of Professional Forecasters, historical forecasts from the Federal Reserve Board's Greenbook, and basic time-series models. Our model's forecast has a root-mean-squared error about 30 percent below that of the next-best forecast in the near term and performs especially well surrounding large recessions and cyclical turning points. Further, because our model uses information on labor force flows that is likely not incorporated by other forecasts, a combined forecast including our model's forecast and the SPF forecast yields an improvement over the latter alone of about 35 percent for current-quarter forecasts, and 15 percent for next-quarter forecasts, as well as improvements at longer horizons.