Predicting the Effects of Sugar‐Sweetened Beverage Taxes on Food and Beverage Demand in a Large Demand System
估计了一个包含23种包装食品饮料的需求系统，预测每盎司加征半美分含糖饮料税会减少总卡路里摄入，但会增加钠和脂肪摄入，且低收入家庭卡路里减少更多但福利损失也更大。
Abstract A censored Exact Affine Stone Index incomplete demand system is estimated for 23 packaged foods and beverages and a numéraire good. Instrumental variables are used to control for endogenous prices. A half‐cent per ounce increase in sugar‐sweetened beverage prices is predicted to reduce total calories from the 23 foods and beverages but increase sodium and fat intakes as a result of product substitution. The predicted decline in calories is larger for low‐income households than for high‐income households, although welfare loss is also higher for low‐income households. Neglecting price endogeneity or estimating a conditional demand model significantly overestimates the calorie reduction.