Equilibrium Exchange Rates in Transition Economies: Taking Stock of the Issues*
综述前苏联集团转型经济体均衡汇率的计算方法，发现趋势升值受开放部门实际汇率和管制价格等非巴拉萨-萨缪尔森效应因素影响，并指出模型实施中的理论、计量和数据三维不确定性。
Abstract. In this paper, we present an overview of a number of issues relating to the equilibrium exchange rates of transition economies of the former soviet bloc. In particular, we present a critical overview of the various methods available for calculating equilibrium exchange rates and discuss how useful they are likely to be for the transition economies. Amongst our findings is the result that the trend appreciation usually observed for the exchange rates of these economies is affected by factors other than the usual Balassa–Samuelson effect, such as the behaviour of the real exchange rate of the open sector and regulated prices. We then consider three main sources of uncertainty relating to the implementation of an equilibrium exchange rate model, namely: differences in the theoretical underpinnings, differences in the econometric estimation techniques, and differences relating to the time‐series and cross‐sectional dimensions of the data. The ensuing three‐dimensional space of real misalignments is probably a useful tool in determining the direction of a possible misalignment rather than its precise size.