Decision Making Process - a Value-Risk Trade-off Practical Applications in the Oil & Gas Industry
提出了一种在石油天然气行业（特别是油田开发方案选择中）系统进行决策的方法，通过权衡各选项的价值与风险来选出最佳方案，并提供了实际应用案例。
The operational context and the competit ive environ ment in which co mpanies do business nowadays impose a level of certainty in our decisions as never before. In spite of the level of effort to reduce the downside and maximize the upside in our enterprises, bad decisions eventually are made. Bad decisions can erode our financial performance and competitive position, adversely impact our pro jects, programs and portfolios, and eventually jeopardize our survivability. Fro m here, the importance of imp lementing a decision making process (DMP) that systematically and consistently addresses the different key drivers that affect the outcome in terms of upside and downside risk. This paper describes an approach for carrying out DM P, part icularly for field development concept selection and will provide some practical applications carried out in the oil and gas industry. The proposed DMP consists of performing a trade -off based on the value proposition and the risk of the options identified in order to sele ct the best value-risk option. The proposed DMP approach represents a framework to systematically and consistently conduct DMP and provides guidelines to enhance our decisions by ensuring a higher level of objectiv ity and traceability in addit ion to prov ide mechanisms to evaluate the robustness of the results.