Risk and Producer Compensation in the Agenda 2000 Cereal Reforms: A Note
指出现有研究对《2000年议程》谷物改革影响生产者价格分布的评估有误，提出应使用Fraser（1991）的方法，并发现预期世界价格是决定生产者对改革看法的关键，数值分析显示当世界价格高于111-112欧元/吨时，生产者会持正面态度。
This note takes the view that existing studies of the impact of the Agenda 2000 cereal reform package have mis‐specified the impact of this package on a producer's price distribution. It is argued that an accurate assessment of this package requires use of the methodology outlined in Fraser (1991), and that use of this methodology highlights the central role of expected world prices in determining whether producer perceptions of this impact are favourable or unfavourable. A numerical analysis in the context of wheat producers generates an estimate for expected world prices of 111–112 Euros/tonne above which producers will perceive the package favourably. This estimate is found to be robust with respect to the key parameters of the analysis.