Changes in Business Cycles: Evidence and Explanations
发现美国年度宏观经济指标的波动性和衰退严重程度在第一次世界大战前和二战后仅略有下降，但衰退变得不那么频繁且更均匀，并认为二战后宏观经济政策（如反周期货币政策和自动稳定器）可以解释这种连续性和变化。
This paper shows that the volatility of annual real macroeconomic indicators for the United States and the average severity of recessions have declined only slightly between the pre-World War I and post-World War II eras. Recessions have, however, become somewhat less frequent and more uniform. It argues that the advent of macroeconomic policy after World War II can account for both the observed continuity and change. Countercyclical monetary policy and automatic stabilizers have prolonged postwar expansions and prevented severe depressions. At the same time, policy-induced booms and recessions have led to continued volatility of the postwar economy.