History Versus Expectations
用一个包含外部经济和调整成本的简单贸易模型，分析经济参数如何决定历史与预期在均衡选择中的相对重要性。
In models with external economies, there are often two or more long-run equilibria. Which equilibrium is chosen? Much of the literature presumes that "history" sets initial conditions that determine the outcome, but an alternative view stresses the role of "expectations, " i.e., of self-fulfilling prophecy. This paper uses a simple trade model with both external economies and adjustment costs to show how the parameters of the economy determine the relative importance of history and expectations in determining equilibrium.