Sensitivity Analysis and Model Evaluation in Simulated Dynamic General Equilibrium Economies
提出一种蒙特卡洛程序，用于评估动态非线性一般均衡宏观模型，使参数选择和模型评估比标准校准方法更客观，并通过三个例子展示其应用。
This paper describes a Monte Carlo procedure to evaluate dynamic nonlinear general equilibrium macro models. The procedure makes the choice of parameters and the evaluation of the model less subjective than standard calibration techniques, it provides more general restrictions than estimation by simulation approaches and provides a way to conduct global sensitivity analysis for reasonable perturbations of the parameters. As an illustration the technique is applied to three examples involving different models and statistics.