Trade Liberalization and Agricultural Chemical Use: United States and Mexico
通过计量估计和模拟，预测北美自由贸易协定、经济增长、研究投资和农业政策对美国与墨西哥农业化学品使用的影响，发现美国化学品使用将大幅增加并加剧地下水污染，墨西哥则化肥增加而农药减少。
Abstract To anticipate the likely effects of recent trade agreements with Mexico on the environment and food safety, this paper examines changes in agricultural chemical use. Econometric estimation and simulation suggest that the combined effects of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), economic growth, research investment, and farm policy are expected to increase chemical usage substantially in the United States and undoubtedly lead to greater groundwater contamination. In Mexico, the expected effects are a substantial increase in fertilizer use but a decrease in pesticide use. Increases in private research investment are expected to increase the use of both types of chemicals, but increases in public research investment in the United States are not.