Better Opportunities or Worse? The Demise of Cotton Harvest Labor, 1949–1964
研究1949-1964年美国12个主要产棉州棉花采摘就业消失的原因，发现机械化、政府农业计划、非农工资上涨和棉花价格下跌等需求侧因素起主导作用，而非劳动力供给因素。
Following World War II millions of cotton workers, especially African-Americans, left the fields forever, and farmers mechanized the cotton harvest. Prevailing empirical studies argue that high factory wages lured farmhands away. Based on newly reconstructed data, we estimate the causes of the demise of harvest employment in 12 major cotton-producing states from 1949–1964 and find important roles for mechanization, government farm programs, higher nonagricultural wages, and falling cotton prices. On net, our estimates indicate that factors affecting farm labor demand, not labor-supply influences, caused the disappearance of hand-picked cotton—results that reverse the best econometric work to date.For helpful comments, we thank Lee Alston, Larry Neal, Werner Baer, Bill Collins, Lee Craig, Carl Moody, Beverley Peart, Eric Hilt, Michele Knapp, the participants of the workshops at Syracuse University, Northwestern University, the University of Illinois, Colby College, Harvard University, the All-Ohio Economic History Seminar (Ohio State University Economics Department), the Social Science History Association Meeting (2001), and the Allied Social Science Meeting (2002), anonymous referees and the editor, Gavin Wright. The authors assume full responsibility for errors and omissions.