Reputation and Credibility in the European Monetary System
量化评估了1980年代欧洲货币体系在反通胀期间的可信度，发现该体系并非普遍认为的德国马克区，而是存在硬货币和软货币两种选择，后期软货币集团瓦解，部分国家转向硬货币标准，为经济货币联盟过渡创造了有利条件。
EMS credibility Axel Weber This article provides a quantitative assessment of the credibility of the European Monetary System during the disinflation period of the 1980s. The results contradict the widely held view that the EMS has operated as a DM-zone. It is shown that, after a brief early phase, the EMS has functioned as a bipolar system with a hard currency option supplied by the German Bundesbank and a soft currency option offered by the Banque de France. Whilst from the onset the Netherlands have chosen the hard currency option, at least in a first stage the remaining smaller economies, Belgium, Denmark and Ireland, adopted the soft currency alternative. At a later stage of the EMS, however, the soft currency block has disintegrated and some countries, most noticeably Ireland and to a lesser extent France, have shifted towards the ‘hard currency’ standard. It is argued that this increased tightening of the EMS provides a favourable starting condition for the transition to Economic and Monetary Union.