From Malthus to Modern Growth: Can Epidemics Explain the Three Regimes?*
构建了一个死亡率内生且受流行病冲击的模型，模拟了从马尔萨斯停滞到现代增长的完整转型，并解释了中间阶段人口与人均收入同时增长的现象。
We model demographic and economic long‐run development in a setting where mortality is endogenous and subject to epidemic shocks. The model replicates the full transition from Malthusian stagnation to modern growth. Consistent with the historical facts, the economy also passes an intermediate post‐Malthusian phase where growth rates of both population and per capita income increase simultaneously, as mortality rates fall and become less volatile. The escape from the Malthusian trap is the result of a series of mild epidemic shocks, making it inevitable at some stage, but its timing random. Calibrations show that it can differ by thousands of generations, absent differences in exogenous parameters.