The cyclical behavior of prices
重新检验了价格顺周期这一经典事实，发现总体数据并不支持其为商业周期的稳定特征，仅在两战期间尤其是大萧条时期表现显著。
The procyclical behavior of prices has been a staple of business cycle lore since the work of the early NBER business cycle researchers. This paper reexamines that empirical fact. The aggregate data do not support procyclical price movements as a stable feature of the business cycle. The only episode where it is a robust feature of the data is the period between the two world wars, particularly the period of the Great Depression.