Structural Versus Reduced‐Form Estimation of Optimal Stopping Problems
比较了最优停止问题的简化形式（probit或logit）估计与结构估计，以非工业私有林主的木材采伐决策为例，指出简化形式虽统计表现接近，但错误解读会带来计量问题。
Abstract In this paper I examine several statistical, interpretive, and policy implications of reduced‐form (probit or logit) estimation of optimal stopping problems. The discussion proceeds in the context of an examination of the timber harvest decision of nonindustrial private forest (NIPF) owners. For a large class of optimal stopping problems a reduced‐form model which closely approximates the statistical performance of its structural counterpart is readily found. Still, failure to properly interpret the relationship between the reduced‐form model and the underlying optimal stopping problem invites flawed econometric analysis and inappropriate interpretation of reduced‐form coefficients.