The Effects of Policy Expectations on Crop Supply, with an Application to Base Updating
构建动态模型评估政策预期对作物供给的影响，以美国作物计划中的基数更新为例，发现其对玉米和大豆种植面积影响较小，因为替代作物受类似政策约束且生产上可替代。
Abstract We develop a dynamic model to assess the effects of policy expectations on crop supply and illustrate the approach with estimates of the effects of base updating in U.S. crop programs. For corn and soybeans in the Corn Belt, the effect of base updating is relatively small because relevant crop alternatives are subject to similar policies and the alternatives are substitutes in production. Increasing acreage of one program crop to capture future payments from base updating reduces future payments from the alternative crop. We also use our model to assess the effect of base updating on acreage response to prices.