Price Barriers in the Dow Jones Industrial Average
检验了道琼斯工业平均指数在100的整数倍(如2800、2900、3000等)关键点位附近是否影响投资者情绪和价格行为,发现这些点位确实起到支撑和阻力作用,突破后价格会超调。
This study tests the popular claim that the DJIA's movements around key reference points affect investor sentiment and thus price behavior. It is found that the DJIA's rise and fall is indeed restrained by support and resistance levels at multiples of 100 (e.g., 2800, 2900, 3000, etc.) but that, having broken through a 100-level, the DJIA then moves by more than otherwise warranted. A Monte Carlo study and comparisons with other indices confirm the significance of these findings. This suggests that some agents may trade on the basis of the DJIA but does not necessarily suggest that the market is inefficient.