Is the 1918 Influenza Pandemic Over? Long‐Term Effects of In Utero Influenza Exposure in the Post‐1940 U.S. Population
利用1918年流感大流行作为自然实验，检验胎儿起源假说。基于1960-80年美国人口普查数据，发现子宫内暴露于该流感的群体教育程度更低、残疾率更高、收入更低，表明胎儿健康投资能提升人力资本。
This paper uses the 1918 influenza pandemic as a natural experiment for testing the fetal origins hypothesis. The pandemic arrived unexpectedly in the fall of 1918 and had largely subsided by January 1919, generating sharp predictions for long-term effects. Data from the 1960–80 decennial U.S. Census indicate that cohorts in utero during the pandemic displayed reduced educational attainment, increased rates of physical disability, lower income, lower socioeconomic status, and higher transfer payments compared with other birth cohorts. These results indicate that investments in fetal health can increase human capital.