The Costs of Error in Setting Reference Rates for Reduced Deforestation
指出减少毁林政策中参考率设定的结构性缺陷会增加错误概率，从而提高政策成本，并提出以最小化预测误差成本为目标来设计参考率，并以农业用地扩张预测为例说明。
Setting reference rates for policy to reduce emissions from deforestation and forest degradation is challenging. This challenge is reflected in the number of proposals for reference rate design. In this paper I show how these proposals have basic structural weaknesses that increase the likelihood of reference rates being set with error. This leads to higher costs of reduced-deforestation policy. I propose that reference rates be designed to minimize the cost of forecast error. These ideas are illustrated through forecasting agricultural land expansion in deforesting countries. <i></i>