The Euro Effect on Trade is not as Large as Commonly Thought*
现有研究认为欧元使商品贸易增加5%到40%，但本文发现标准引力模型残差有上升趋势导致高估，加入时间趋势后估计的欧元影响仅为3%。
Abstract Existing studies on the impact of the euro on goods trade report increments between 5% and 40%. These estimates are based on standard panel gravity models for the level of trade. We show that the residuals from these models exhibit upward trends over time for the euro countries, and that this leads to an upward bias in the estimated euro effect. To correct for that, we extend the standard model by including a time trend that may have different effects across country‐pairs. This results in an estimated euro impact of only 3%.