What Starts Inflation: Evidence from the OECD Countries
利用1960年以来OECD国家73次通胀事件的数据，发现政策制定者追求高实际增长目标和选举是通胀启动的重要因素，而美国通胀是跨国同时爆发的触发事件。
We use a pooled cross-country time series framework to study the factors associated with the start of 73 inflation episodes in OECD countries since 1960. We find that policy-makers' pursuit of high real growthtargets and national elections were important factors in initiating inflation episodes. U.S. inflation turns out to be a triggering event for simultaneous outbreaks of inflation across countries. Several other explanations for inflation starts, including increases in the natural rate of unemployment, oil price shocks, changes in the political orientation of governments, and government debt policy, are not supported by the data.