Accounting for Trends in Productivity and R&D: A Schumpeterian Critique of Semi‐Endogenous Growth Theory
通过协整检验和预测分析，发现半内生增长理论关于研发投入增长驱动生产率增长的预测不成立，而熊彼特增长理论的预测与数据一致，对研究增长理论的学者有参考价值。
This paper argues that long‐run trends in R&D and TFP are more supportive of fully endogenous “Schumpeterian” growth theory than they are of semi‐endogenous growth theory. The distinctive prediction of semi‐endogenous theory that sustained TFP growth requires sustained growth of R&D input is not supported by co‐integration tests and forecasting exercises, as TFP growth has been stationary even though the growth rate of R&D input has fallen three‐fold since the early 1950s. In contrast, the prediction of Schumpeterian theory that sustained TFP growth requires a sustained fraction of GDP to be spent on R&D is not contradicted by similar tests.