商业周期中的房价、借贷约束与货币政策

House Prices, Borrowing Constraints, and Monetary Policy in the Business Cycle

American Economic Review · 2005
被引 2464 · 同刊同年前 1%
人大 A+FT50ABS 4*

中文导读

构建并估计了一个包含名义贷款和住房价值抵押约束的货币商业周期模型,发现需求冲击会同步推高房价和名义价格,且抵押效应能显著改善总需求对房价冲击的反应,名义债务则使产出对通胀意外反应更迟缓。

Abstract

I develop and estimate a monetary business cycle model with nominal loans and collateral constraints tied to housing values. Demand shocks move housing and nominal prices in the same direction, and are amplified and propagated over time. The financial accelerator is not uniform: nominal debt dampens supply shocks, stabilizing the economy under interest rate control. Structural estimation supports two key model features: collateral effects dramatically improve the response of aggregate demand to housing price shocks; and nominal debt improves the sluggish response of output to inflation surprises. Finally, policy evaluation considers the role of house prices and debt indexation in affecting monetary policy trade-offs.

房价借贷约束货币政策商业周期