Fighting global food price rises in the developing world: the response of China and its effect on domestic and world markets
研究中国如何应对世界粮食危机，通过动用库存和限制出口保持国内粮价稳定，但大豆价格随国际上涨；使用全球CGE模型分析发现，初始价格上涨主要由石油和生物燃料需求驱动。
Abstract This article addresses how China is being affected by and is responding to the world food crisis. So far, Chinese officials have responded to higher world prices by drawing down stocks and limiting exports of major grains. These policy instruments were not available for soybeans, so domestic prices of soy and other oilseeds have risen with international prices. Using a global CGE model, we show that the initial world price rise was largely due to higher world oil prices and demand for biofuels as opposed to other factors, especially in maize and soybeans. China's response to this shock has kept domestic grain prices low relative to world grain markets and to domestic soybean prices. As grain stocks are depleted, however, demand growth will push domestic prices back into alignment. Anticipating this pressure on consumers and accelerating supply response through public investment will facilitate adjustment.