Macroeconomic Instability and the “Natural” Processes in early Neoclassical Economics
以杰文斯的太阳黑子理论为引子，讨论经济史中前现代与工业宏观经济二分法的根源，指出该二分法源于早期新古典理论，但缺乏历史证据支持，并对经济政策观念有启示。
It may seem odd to disinter an economic theory—in this instance, William Stanley Jevons's claim that sunspots caused macroeconomic fluctuations—which no one now believes or much cares about. In fact, my purpose is not to scoff at a dead theory, but to use it as a pretext to discuss the following issues: economic historians often have suggested a dichotomy between a premodem and industrial macroeconomy, with the premodern economy largely at the mercy of weather and other natural phenomena; the dichotomy is rooted in early neoclassical economic theory (here restricting ourselves to Jevons); there is little historical evidence that premodern macro fluctuations were caused by natural disturbances, such as the weather (here restricting ourselves to the case of England); and the above three theses have some interesting implications for the way economic policy is conceived, both then and now.