Are High Interest Rates Effective for Stopping High Inflation? Some Skeptical Notes
质疑高利率遏制高通胀的有效性,指出传统IS-LM模型忽略现代信贷市场关键特征,高利率可能导致银行不良贷款,从而削弱政策效果,并举例说明低利率均衡可能更优。
High interest rates are considered an effective tool for stopping high inflation. The case for a policy of high interest rates is developed in terms of a conventional IS-LM model. However, among other things, the model ignores some central aspects of modern credit markets. In particular high interest rates may give rise to nonperforming bank loans, thus seriously jeopardizing the effectiveness of the policy. Examples are developed in which it would be optimal to aim for equilibriums of low, rather than high, interest rates. One of these examples hinges on the existence of nonindexed domestic debt. Copyright 1992 by Oxford University Press.