Micro Shocks and Aggregate Risk
提出一种“微观”冲击解释总体风险的理论,证明玩家间独立冲击的游戏可以产生任意程度的总体风险,并给出具体例子,对提取总体冲击的因子分析方法有启示。
The paper presents a "micro" shock explanation of aggregate risk. Shocks are independent over agents, and equilibria are always unique. It is shown that any amount of aggregate risk can be generated by games in which shocks to players are independent. Explicit examples are given, some of which elaborate on examples in the literature. Implications are drawn for factor-analytic methods of extracting aggregate shocks.