Probabilities as Similarity-Weighted Frequencies
研究决策者如何根据数据库形成信念，证明若两个数据库的信念是各自信念的凸组合，则信念形成遵循简单公式：信念是过去案例所诱导信念的相似性加权平均。
A decision maker is asked to express her beliefs by assigning probabilities to certain possible states. We focus on the relationship between her database and her beliefs. We show that if beliefs given a union of two databases are a convex combination of beliefs given each of the databases, the belief formation process follows a simple formula: beliefs are a similarity-weighted average of the beliefs induced by each past case.