Political Instability, Uncertainty and Economics
从理论和实证两方面探讨政治不稳定和政策不确定性如何影响经济增长、预算形成、通胀和货币政策，并给出财政赤字策略性使用的新证据。
This paper focuses on the relationship between political instability, policy–making and macroeconomic outcomes. The theoretical section explores various models that explain the effect of instability (and political uncertainty) on growth, budget formation, inflation and monetary policy. The empirical section discusses the evidence on the predictions generated by theoretical models. Preliminary to this discussion, however, is the analysis of a few general issues concerning the specification and estimation of econometric models with political variables. Some new results are then produced on the empirical relevance of theories of strategic use of fiscal deficit.