CONDITIONAL CASH TRANSFERS TO IMPROVE EDUCATION AND HEALTH: ANEX ANTEEVALUATION OF RED DE PROTECCIÓN SOCIAL, NICARAGUA
利用随机实验的基线数据，通过行为模型评估尼加拉瓜有条件现金转移项目对3岁以下儿童预防性医疗利用的影响，并模拟两种政策情景。
Using baseline data from a randomized experiment, this article extends and tests in the context of health, the feasibility of a recently proposed reduced form approach to ex ante evaluations of social programs with an application to a conditional cash transfer program in Nicaragua. It uses a behavioural model to estimate the impact on preventive care utilization outcomes for children younger than 3 years. It validates the model with the results of the experiment and then simulates two alternate policy scenarios. The model performs well in predicting the health related outcomes and shows different results for the two sets of policy scenarios. In addition, simulations are also carried out for the school component of the cash transfer program.