Modelling the Impact of Demographic Change Upon the Economy
认为基于校准的一般均衡模型模拟能可靠估计人口结构变化对储蓄行为的影响，并开发模型评估养老金改革的效果。
Over the next few decades there will be significant changes in the demographic structure of nearly all developed countries. Such dramatic demographic change could have a powerful impact upon saving behaviour, but estimates of how great the effects will be differ depending on what evidence is used. This paper argues that simulations based on calibrated general equilibrium models are likely to provide the most reliable evidence. A model is developed and is used to assess the impact of reforms to pension systems.