Oil Prices, Monetary Policy, and Counterfactual Experiments
经济衰退常伴随油价上涨和联邦基金利率上升，本文探讨如何区分两者中哪个才是衰退的真正原因。
Recessions are associated with both rising oil prices and increases in the federal funds rate. Are recessions caused by the spikes in oil prices or by the sharp tightening of monetary policy? This paper discusses the difficulties in disentangling these two effects.