A Fiscal Theory of Currency Crises
提出汇率危机由财政政策引发，当基本盈余现值偏离钉住汇率下的政府债务价值时危机出现；长期债券允许货币当局延迟危机，但财政政策决定危机必然性，货币政策决定时机和贬值幅度。
An exchange rate crisis is caused when the fiscal authority lets the present value of primary surpluses, inclusive of seigniorage, deviate from the value of government debt at the pegged exchange rate. In the absence of long‐term government bonds, the exchange rate collapse must be instantaneous. With long‐term government bonds, the collapse can be delayed at the discretion of the monetary authority. Fiscal policy is responsible for the inevitability of a crisis, while monetary policy determines its characteristics, that is, the timing of the crisis and the magnitude of exchange rate depreciation.