Posterior Probabilities of the Independence Axiom With Nonexperimental Data (or Buckle Up and Fan Out)
用非实验数据（安全带使用数据）构建期望效用独立性公设违背的后验概率，发现数据支持阿莱型悖论，且与Machina假设II不矛盾，但与Chew和Waller的“轻”假设矛盾。
This article addresses the issues associated with the construction of posterior probabilities for violation of the independence axiom of expected utility from nonexperimental data. To illustrate the methodology of analyzing nonexperimental evidence, we consider seat-belt-usage data. We find a posterior probability close to one of an Allais-type paradox in these data. In addition, the evidence is not inconsistent with Machina's Hypothesis II but is inconsistent with the “light” hypothesis of Chew and Waller.