Measurement Error in the Consumer Price Index: Where Do We Stand?
调查了CPI测量误差的证据，估计CPI每年高估生活成本变化约0.6个百分点，其中一半源于未能充分捕捉质量变化和新商品带来的福利改善，并指出进一步改进的方向。
We survey the evidence bearing on measurement error in the CPI and provide our best estimate of the magnitude of CPI bias. We also identify a "weighting" bias in the CPI that has not been previously discussed in the literature. In total, we estimate that the CPI overstates the change in the cost of living by about 0.6 percentage point per year, with a confidence interval that ranges from 0.1 to 1.2 percentage points. Roughly half of this bias is accounted for by the CPI's inability to fully capture the welfare improvement from quality change and the introduction of new items. Our bias estimate is smaller than that found in several earlier studies, in part because the BLS has recently made a variety of improvements to its procedures; our study highlights several potential areas for further improvement.