Food Self-Sufficiency, Comparative Advantage, and Agricultural Trade: A Policy Analysis Matrix for Chinese Agriculture
用政策分析矩阵评估中国主要农作物的比较优势和贸易保护程度，发现中国在劳动密集型作物上有优势、土地密集型作物上劣势，并指出粮食自给政策导致效率损失。
We assess the comparative advantage and protection of China's major agricultural crops using a modified Policy Analysis Matrix (PAM) and 1996 to 1998 data. We consider the following commodities: early indica rice, late indica rice, japonica rice, south wheat, north wheat, south corn, north corn, sorghum, soybean, rapeseed, cotton, tobacco, sugarcane, and a subset of fruits and vegetables. Consistent with the intuition of the simple Heckscher-Ohlin model, the results strongly suggest that China has a comparative advantage in labor-intensive crops, and a disadvantage in land-intensive crops. Specifically, land-intensive grain and oilseed crops are less socially profitable than fruits and vegetables. Within the grain sector, high quality rice and high quality north wheat have a more comparative advantage than early indica rice and south wheat, respectively. The findings suggest that China's current grain self-sufficiency policy incurs efficiency losses. Our results shed light on likely changes in agricultural trade patterns in China, if accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO) takes place. We also stress the need for greater input productivity in grain production to improve its competitiveness if China keeps its food security policy.