Risk and Household Grain Management in Developing Countries
构建了一个动态模型，分析发展中国家农户在面临交易成本和价格、产量风险时，如何通过粮食生产、储存和交易来平衡利润最大化和消费价格风险降低，并用中国数据校准模型，发现粮食的消费属性使其成为重要的预防性储蓄手段。
A dynamic model is presented of a household's joint production, storage, and trade decisions when facing transaction costs and risk in prices and yields. Grain management decisions balance the goals of maximising profits and reducing consumption price risk. Model solutions calibrated to Chinese data show that grain's consumption role makes it an attractive form of precautionary saving even when households have access to credit, the joint nature of production and savings decisions limits the income loss associated with risk-coping, and the desire to store grain can explain why subsistence households are frequently net purchasers but rarely net sellers of grain. © 2006 The Author(s). Journal compilation © Royal Economic Society 2006.