Fat Tails and the Social Cost of Carbon
研究了温室气体浓度高时气候变化可能引发灾难性损失，而肥尾分布会显著提高碳的社会成本，对政策制定者评估减排投资价值有参考意义。
At high enough greenhouse gas concentrations, climate change might conceivably cause catastrophic damages with small but non-negligible probabilities. If the bad tail of climate damages is sufficiently fat, and if the coefficient of relative risk aversion is greater than one, the catastrophe-reducing insurance aspect of mitigation investments could in theory have a strong influence on raising the social cost of carbon. In this paper I exposit the influence of fat tails on climate change economics in a simple stark formulation focused on the social cost of carbon. I then attempt to place the basic underlying issues within a balanced perspective.